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    Copper price falls on US inflation, Chile strike risk: planning notes for mines

    October 16, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Copper price falls on US inflation, Chile strike risk: planning notes for mines

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Copper fell for a third straight session, with Comex December down 1.2% to $6.5810/lb ($14,508/t) and LME three‑month at $14,360/t, as hotter US inflation revived Federal Reserve hike odds and a deal at BHP’s Escondida eased near‑term Chilean supply risk. LME stocks have slipped to 228,000 t (down 8% this month) and the Comex–LME spread has shrunk to about $49/t, implying only ~2% odds of a 15% US import tariff in January on Macquarie’s modelling. Antofagasta dropped 6.4% in London after cutting its 2027 output outlook to 630,000–690,000 t and raising cash cost guidance on higher diesel.

    Technical Brief

    • Cash copper on the LME traded at $14,751/t, maintaining a $116/t backwardation over three‑month.
    • LME copper inventories sit at 228,000 t, having fallen 8% since the start of October.
    • Shanghai Futures Exchange’s most‑traded copper contract closed at 108,940 yuan/t (~$16,276/t), down 1.9% intraday.
    • Technicals weakened as prices slipped below the 50‑day moving average and challenged an uptrend in place since March.
    • GEM Mining Consulting previously assessed 5% of Chilean copper output at risk from labour and geotechnical disruptions.
    • Codelco’s El Teniente open pit remains shut after a landslide, constraining near‑term Chilean mine supply flexibility.
    • Antofagasta reported a 7% quarter‑on‑quarter rise in copper production, aided by better grades at Los Pelambres.
    • Macquarie forecasts a 223,000 t refined copper surplus in 2026, rising above 700,000 t annually from 2027.

    Our Take

    The 5% Chilean copper output at risk flagged by GEM Mining Consulting in the 8 October piece on Chile’s mines suggests that even a partial easing of strike risk at assets like Escondida or Los Pelambres can quickly narrow the Comex–LME spreads now being used as a proxy for supply disruption pricing.

    With Comex copper still up 17% in 2026 and majors such as BHP, Freeport-McMoRan and Southern Copper all showing 34%–41% year-to-date equity gains in our database, the current three-day price pullback looks more like a volatility event within a strong cycle than a structural downturn for project sanctioning decisions.

    The September loss of $264 billion in market value across the top 50 miners, highlighted in our 4 October coverage, combined with this week’s copper-led selloff, increases pressure on diversified groups like Rio Tinto, Teck Resources and Glencore to prioritise lower-capex, faster-payback copper expansions over greenfield builds in higher-risk jurisdictions such as Chile.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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