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    BMI lithium price forecast: surplus, projects and risks for mine planners

    August 28, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    BMI lithium price forecast: surplus, projects and risks for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 152,500 yuan/t (up 29% in 2026 and 87% year-on-year), yet BMI has cut its near-term outlook, forecasting Chinese spot averages sliding to $17,200/t in Q3 and $16,800/t in Q4 despite raising its 2026 carbonate and hydroxide forecasts to $20,100/t and $19,600/t. BMI projects a persistent market surplus to 2030, with prices bottoming near $14,500/t in 2028 as global output grows 13.2% this year, driven by restarts at Bald Hill, Finniss and CATL’s Jianxiawo mine, which alone could supply about 3–4% of global output. Longer term, nearly fourfold growth in global battery storage capacity to 1,270 GW by 2035 and LFP’s 83.3% share of Chinese installations support carbonate demand, but sodium-ion chemistries such as CATL’s Naxtra and faster recycling advances cap upside and could keep prices below current levels for the rest of the decade.

    Technical Brief

    • Jianxiawo restart is stalled pending environmental impact assessment approval, with regulators confirming no ore loading or crushing.
    • Benchmark Mineral Intelligence estimates a prolonged Jianxiawo delay could put ~4% of global lithium supply at risk.
    • Mineral Resources’ Bald Hill and Core Lithium’s Finniss restarts are among higher-cost Australian operations being reactivated by recent price recovery.
    • Severe late-July snow in Catamarca disrupted Rio Tinto’s 32,000 t/y Fenix brine operation on Salar del Hombre Muerto.
    • China’s battery output reached 191.7 GWh in May, up 55% year-on-year, underpinning short-term demand resilience.
    • LFP chemistry powered over 90% of global battery storage and more than half of EVs, per IEA data.
    • LFP’s share of Chinese battery installations hit a record 83.3% in June, reinforcing carbonate’s pricing premium over hydroxide.
    • CATL’s Naxtra sodium-ion cells already match LFP energy density, with up to 20,000 EVs expected to use sodium batteries this year.

    Our Take

    BMI and Fitch Solutions have been consistently bullish on 2026 pricing across metals in our database, so this more cautious stance on lithium versus fundamentals signals that battery metals may now see sharper differentiation by commodity rather than moving as a single ‘energy transition’ basket.

    With China’s dominance in LFP chemistry and installations, any prolonged disruption at assets like Jianxiawo or Bald Hill in Australia and Zimbabwe is likely to shift marginal supply risk away from brine-heavy South America and back towards hard‑rock jurisdictions already under cost pressure.

    The relatively modest BMI forecast for lithium demand growth this year compared with 2025, set against strong battery output metrics in China and rising global storage capacity, suggests project developers in Argentina and Nevada will need to plan for more volatile, policy‑driven offtake cycles rather than a smooth EV‑only growth curve.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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