Barrick and Equinox in TD Cowen’s top picks: production and project lens for engineers
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Barrick Mining, Equinox Gold, Hudbay Minerals and Royal Gold feature among TD Cowen’s 24 “Canada Best Ideas” picks, with catalysts centred on production growth, asset deals and valuation gaps of about 20–25% versus peers and large-cap North American miners. TD Cowen projects Barrick’s 2027 output at 3.7 million oz. gold and 225,000 tonnes copper with about $8 billion free cash flow and an IPO of North American assets targeted for early 2027, while Equinox’s Orla Mining acquisition is expected to lift gold production 40% to 1.27 million oz. and EBITDA 62% to $3.48 billion. Hudbay’s Cactus and Copper World projects are forecast to push copper production to roughly 333,000 tonnes by 2036, and Royal Gold is guided to 6.1% volume growth in 2027 from streams at Kansanshi, Platreef, Robertson and Pueblo Viejo.
Technical Brief
- Barrick’s Fourmile transaction with Newmont removes a key ownership hurdle for the Nevada project’s advancement.
- TD Cowen pegs Barrick’s free cash flow yield at about 11% over the coming year.
- Barrick trades at an estimated 25% discount to large-cap North American miners, per TD Cowen.
- TD Cowen’s Barrick target of $59 (C$82.60) implies ~38% upside from $42.69.
- Equinox’s NAV is estimated at a 20% discount versus peers, despite Orla-driven portfolio scale.
- Equinox’s catalysts include US-FAST 41 completion for Castle Mountain and Q4 restart at Los Filos.
- Copper Mountain and Constancia are expected to deliver “visible, low-capital” copper growth and throughput gains.
- Royal Gold’s raised target to $315 from $289 implies ~26% upside from $250.11.
- Royal Gold growth is tied to higher stream deliveries from Kansanshi, Platreef, Robertson and Pueblo Viejo.
Our Take
Barrick Mining’s highlighted upside here sits against our recent coverage of its planned ‘North American Barrick’ spin-out holding Nevada and Pueblo Viejo assets, suggesting TD Cowen’s valuation case likely assumes successful execution of that IPO and associated portfolio simplification.
Equinox Gold’s forecast 40% gold production growth to 2027 places it at the higher-growth end of the gold names in our database, which may help explain why TD Cowen sees only a modest net asset value discount relative to peers despite its multi-jurisdiction project risk in Mexico, California and Brazil.
Hudbay Minerals’ 27% copper production growth outlook following the US$1.5 billion Arizona Sonoran acquisition aligns with a cluster of copper-focused items in our recent mining coverage, signalling that North American copper growth stories are increasingly being built via M&A around Arizona and Peru assets rather than greenfield builds alone.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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