Copper faces further slide after US vote: pricing outlook for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper prices on the LME have fallen to about $13,779 per tonne ($6.25/lb), their lowest since July, with TD Securities’ Bart Melek warning of a further ~$500/t downside as Democratic gains in the US midterms weaken expectations for aggressive copper tariffs and large AI data centre build‑out. TD estimates US copper inventories at roughly 1.6 million tonnes, with Comex stocks up about 62% this year and now holding ~70% of global exchange copper, reducing incentives for further US stockpiling. BMI expects mine constraints at Grasberg and Kamoa‑Kakula and strong Chinese demand—evidenced by a record Yangshan premium above $200/t—to partially cushion any correction, guiding average prices of $13,500/t in 2026 and $12,900/t in 2027.
Technical Brief
- Washington’s July 2025 proclamation foreshadows refined copper import duties of 15% from Jan 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, pending presidential approval.
- Separate 50% tariffs on specified semi-finished and copper-intensive derivative products have already applied since August 2025.
- Comex warehouse inventories have climbed about 62% year-to-date, now accounting for roughly 70% of global exchange stocks.
- TD estimates total US copper inventories around 1.6 Mt, with prior inflows driven by higher Comex prices versus LME.
- Chile supplied 68% and Canada 16% of US refined copper imports over 2021–24, indicating strong source concentration risk.
- China’s refined copper output reached an estimated 14 Mt in 2025, nearly half of global production capacity.
- The Yangshan import premium surpassed $200/t, its highest level since records began in 2017, signalling tight prompt availability into China.
- BMI has cut its 2026 mine production growth forecast from 2.4% to 1.1%, citing Chilean weakness and constraints at Freeport-McMoRan’s Grasberg and Ivanhoe’s Kamoa-Kakula operations.
Our Take
TD Securities features repeatedly in our recent metals coverage, including gold and multi-commodity macro pieces from March–July 2026, signalling that its call on copper here is likely to be read by traders alongside its broader cross-commodity positioning rather than in isolation.
With Chile and Canada accounting for the bulk of US refined copper imports in 2021–24, any sustained LME price softness combined with prospective US duties into 2027–28 will likely push those exporters to prioritise higher-premium Asian markets such as China, where Yangshan premiums have already hit record levels.
BMI’s downgrade of 2026 copper mine production growth to 1.1% sits against a backdrop of many project-tagged copper items in our database struggling with permitting and cost inflation, suggesting that even a modest demand surprise could quickly tighten the market despite the current inventory build in Comex warehouses.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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