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    Antofagasta 2027 copper guidance cut: project and cost lens for mine planners

    October 16, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Antofagasta 2027 copper guidance cut: project and cost lens for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Antofagasta shares fell 6.4% to £33.40 after the Chilean copper producer cut its 2027 output guidance to 630,000–690,000 tonnes and lifted cash cost guidance to $2.60–$2.70/lb before by-product credits on higher diesel prices. The new range implies no growth on original 2026 guidance and sits about 9% below BMO’s 2027 forecast, prompting J.P. Morgan to flag mid-single-digit EBITDA downgrades. Construction of the Centinela Second Concentrator and Los Pelambres expansion is on track for 2027 completion, with primary crusher, overland conveyor and new concentrate pipeline all in pre-commissioning.

    Technical Brief

    • Primary crusher and overland conveyor at Centinela Second Concentrator reached design speed during integrated no‑load pre‑commissioning.
    • New Los Pelambres concentrate pipeline advanced with tunnel excavation, pipe installation, and lower-section hydraulic testing underway.
    • Upper section of the Los Pelambres pipeline is being prepared for full hydrostatic pressure testing.
    • Desalination plant expansion at Los Pelambres is in pre‑commissioning, with electrical cabling and pumping station equipment installation progressing.
    • Zaldívar Water Supply project moved into early execution with camp construction, key pipeline material deliveries and HV line civil works.
    • Q3 copper output of 151,900 t was 7% higher quarter‑on‑quarter, largely from Los Pelambres recovery.
    • Weather-related disruptions in July, including heavy rainfall and power outages at Los Pelambres, forced a 2026 guidance cut.
    • Release of concentrate stockpiled during Q2 pipeline maintenance materially contributed to Q3 production normalisation.
    • Diesel market tightness flagged by the IEA suggests sustained fuel cost pressure into at least 2027 for haulage and power.

    Our Take

    In our database, Antofagasta’s 2027 copper outlook lands just months after the August 2026 cut to 2026 guidance at Los Pelambres, signalling that weather and water‑management risk in Chile is increasingly central to how investors read medium‑term production promises.

    The move up in full‑year cash cost guidance to around $2.6–2.7/lb comes against a backdrop of copper prices near record LME levels in several recent pieces, which likely cushions margins but also raises the bar for projects like Centinela’s second concentrator to demonstrate robust cost control once prices normalise.

    Repeated recent coverage of labour and contract tensions at Centinela suggests execution risk on both the Centinela Second Concentrator Project and the Zaldívar water supply upgrades will stay in focus, as any slippage could further undermine confidence in Antofagasta’s post‑2026 growth profile.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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