Geopolitical shocks from the US–Iran conflict are strengthening copper’s bull case, with Sprott analyst Jacob White forecasting that electrification, data centres and grid upgrades could lift these “strategic” uses from 32% of demand in 2024 to 45% by 2040, and noting this demand is less price-sensitive than construction. On the supply side, closure of the Strait of Hormuz has nearly doubled sulfuric acid prices, threatening SX-EW output that supplies about 4.8 Mt of copper and depends on sulfur flows from countries providing 49% of global sulfur trade. Despite higher sulfuric acid and diesel costs, Sprott says almost all copper mines remain profitable at the current US$13,000/t spot price, with copper equities already up 7.98% in April.

Peru’s $1.8 billion Tía María copper project saw its exploitation permit voided on 19 March 2026 and reissued on 20 April, despite being 23% built and targeting 120,000 tonnes of copper per year by early 2027, exposing acute regulatory volatility. Minem cited incomplete waste-dump design and inadequate scheduling, yet the rapid reversal amid a fragmented presidential race with 35 candidates shows how technical findings are weaponised by shifting political forces and local opposition in the Tambo Valley. With 200–400 permits, ~30 authorities and 5–15 year timelines now typical in Peru, operators must price in abrupt legal reversals even after construction approval.

Global Battery Materials plans to restart Ontario’s Kearney flake graphite mine within about 20 months, targeting initial output of 23,000 tonnes of carbon graphite per year from 2028, rising to 50,000 tonnes, backed by WSP’s update of a 2018 feasibility study. The former Ontario Graphite asset hosts 23 million tonnes of proven and probable reserves at 1.95% Cg, plus 61.8 million measured and indicated tonnes at 1.99% Cg, supporting a projected mine life of at least 20 years. GBM is also advancing site selection for a 50,000‑tonne‑per‑year anode materials plant in Ontario, Quebec or the US, with production targeted from late 2028.