US–Canada minerals strategy: key supply-chain takeaways for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan
First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Washington’s escalating trade disputes with Ottawa risk undermining its strategy to cut dependence on Chinese minerals, with CFR senior fellow and former US sanctions official Edward Fishman warning that the United States “cannot do it without the Canadians”. China currently controls about 91% of global refined rare earth magnet output and has already used export controls to disrupt automotive production, while US-aligned supply is emerging through projects such as Centerra Gold’s US$425–450 million restart of the Thompson Creek molybdenum mine feeding the Langeloth plant. Hecla Mining is doubling down on lower-risk jurisdictions with silver production from Greens Creek (Alaska), Lucky Friday (Idaho) and Keno Hill (Yukon), betting that jurisdictional stability will support premium valuations as supply chains fragment.
Technical Brief
- Centerra’s Thompson Creek restart targets first molybdenum ore production by mid-2027, feeding Langeloth.
- Restart capex is guided at US$425–450 million, reflecting full mine, plant and logistics reactivation.
- Molybdenum output is aimed at high-strength steels for energy, defence and aerospace supply chains.
- Centerra’s management is evaluating an IPO or spin-out of the U.S. molybdenum business but with no timetable.
- Hecla’s operating silver portfolio is concentrated in Greens Creek (Alaska), Lucky Friday (Idaho) and Keno Hill (Yukon).
- Hecla’s growth strategy prioritises brownfield expansion of existing assets over M&A to control capital pacing and risk.
- Fishman notes Chinese refined rare earth magnet output reached 91% of global supply in 2024, versus 60% of mining.
- Fishman stresses mining project lives outlast U.S. election cycles, so supply-chain geopolitics must be treated as structural.
Our Take
China’s 91% share of refined rare earths in 2024 stands out even within our 212 keyword-matched ‘minerals/rare earths’ pieces, where most other supply-risk stories involve far lower single-country concentration, underscoring why US–Canada coordination is being framed as a strategic rather than purely commercial issue.
The reported fatalities of artisanal miners at the North Mara gold mine in Tanzania highlight that, across our mining coverage, security and community conflict around high-value gold and copper assets in Africa remain a persistent ESG risk, which can complicate Western efforts to position such jurisdictions as alternatives to China-linked supply.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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