Solar silver thrifting limits: market deficit implications for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Silver demand is set to outstrip supply for a sixth straight year, with the Silver Institute’s World Silver Survey 2026 projecting a 46.3-million oz. deficit after prices briefly spiked above US$120/oz in January from US$30/oz a year earlier. Photovoltaic silver use fell 6% in 2025 to 186.6 million oz. and is forecast to drop a further 19% to about 151 million oz. in 2026 as manufacturers adopt TOPCon cells, zero-busbar layouts and ultra-fine printing to push loadings below 5 mg/W by 2027. Analysts warn that even 10–20% thrifting and potential copper substitution cannot fully offset demand from solar, grid expansion, automotive and AI-driven power loads, so miners should plan around structurally tight silver markets rather than a simple linear link to installed PV capacity.
Technical Brief
- Silver’s share of solar cell manufacturing cost jumped from ~8% to >20% as prices spiked.
- US silver powder demand for solar manufacturing still rose 4% year-on-year in 2025 despite thrifting.
- Chinese manufacturers now supply ~80% of global solar capacity, with TOPCon technology becoming the dominant cell type.
- China installed a record 315 GW of solar in 2025, front-loaded ahead of policy deadlines and grid bottlenecks.
- Zero-busbar layouts and refined paste application have already cut silver use per cell by roughly 10%.
- Further adoption of ultra-fine line printing is expected to trim another 10–20% of silver consumption in cell metallisation.
- Copper electroplating and pure copper pastes could theoretically cut silver per module by up to 90%, but scaling is difficult.
- US$43 billion in US solar manufacturing investment and ~48,000 jobs are exposed to evolving China-related trade and subsidy rules.
Our Take
The projected 46.3-million-oz silver market deficit in 2026 aligns with another recent piece in our database where the Silver Institute also flagged a sixth straight annual deficit, signalling that even aggressive photovoltaic thrifting is unlikely to loosen the overall market for miners or refiners.
With China holding about 80% of global solar manufacturing capacity and targeting 315 GW of installations in 2025, any large-scale shift from silver to copper in cell metallisation would effectively be dictated by Chinese manufacturers such as LONGi and Trina Solar, concentrating technology risk and IP leverage in that jurisdiction.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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