Silver stockpile drawdown risk: supply–demand lens for mining project teams
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Silver inventories at COMEX and London have fallen sharply from pandemic-era peaks – COMEX registered stocks are down more than 75% to about 79.9 million oz., while LBMA vaults hold 27,454 tonnes (≈883 million oz.), 20% below their 2021 record – yet analysts argue this does not prove a structural shortage. The World Silver Survey 2026 projects a 46.3 million oz. deficit and estimates 762 million oz. drawn from above-ground stocks since 2021, but CPM Group stresses that investment flows, working inventories and scrap – including “billions of ounces” in jewellery and electronics – can rapidly re-enter the market.
Technical Brief
- COMEX “registered” category only counts bars specifically warranted and deliverable against futures contracts.
- LBMA vault statistics aggregate all vaulted silver in London, including ETFs, pooled and allocated investor holdings.
- Because of differing custody definitions, COMEX registered and LBMA vault figures are not directly comparable indicators of tightness.
- J.P. Morgan notes heavy physical transfers of silver from London to New York, tightening local liquidity and volatility.
- Working inventories include roughly 800 million oz. fabricated annually, circulating through 8–10 companies before final use.
- Silver in jewellery, electronics, silverware and statues forms “billions of ounces” of latent scrap supply, per CPM Group.
- Industrial fabrication demand is forecast to fall 3% this year, reaching a four‑year low due to thrifting and substitution.
- Historical price spikes in 1979–80, 2008 and 2010 released “hundreds of millions of ounces” of scrap back to market.
- Analysts distinguish “current account” industrial consumption from “capital account” investment flows when assessing genuine physical shortages.
Our Take
The projected 46.3 Moz silver market deficit and six consecutive deficit years sit alongside our recent coverage of spot prices hitting $89/oz in January 2026, signalling that price volatility is increasingly being driven by perceived tightness rather than visible exchange inventories alone.
COMEX and LBMA feature repeatedly across our database in pieces on copper and gold inventories, suggesting that for traders and producers the key risk is not absolute silver stock levels but how quickly metal can be mobilised between these venues and off-market vaults when fabrication chains involve 8–10 companies.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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