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    Ontario’s Lecce on US tariffs: trade exposure risks for mining projects

    November 6, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Ontario’s Lecce on US tariffs: trade exposure risks for mining projects

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Ontario Energy and Mines Minister Stephen Lecce warns that U.S. tariffs on Canadian metals will persist despite Democrats winning both the House and Senate, leaving exporters of steel, aluminium and copper facing sectoral duties of 15%–50% plus a separate 50% levy on $27.6 billion of Canadian goods. He says the result may strengthen Prime Minister Mark Carney’s hand in linked negotiations over CUSMA’s post‑2020 review and sectoral tariff relief, but not the underlying protectionist stance. Lecce urges Ontario to cut its exposure to a U.S. market that still takes well over 75% of its trade.

    Technical Brief

    • Washington’s August move added a 50% tariff on US$27.6 billion of specified Canadian goods.
    • Sectoral U.S. tariffs on covered Canadian steel, aluminium and copper products span 15%–50% depending on product.
    • Certain U.S. tariffs still apply even where Canadian exports qualify for CUSMA preferential treatment.
    • CUSMA’s current term now runs to 2036, with potential for a further 16‑year extension.
    • Annual CUSMA reviews were triggered after Washington declined in July to extend the agreement unchanged.
    • Ontario Premier Doug Ford opposed an earlier draft deal that would have entrenched acceptance of tariffs “in perpetuity”.
    • Linked negotiations now explicitly tie CUSMA renewal to relief on sectoral tariffs for steel, aluminium, autos and lumber.

    Our Take

    The 2036 end-date and potential 16‑year extension of CUSMA mean that for Ontario-based suppliers into U.S. autos, steel and lumber markets, tariff risk now has to be modelled on a multi-decade horizon, similar to how miners in our database treat long-life copper and nickel assets facing royalty uncertainty.

    Other Policy pieces in our coverage touching aluminum and copper have focused on monetary and investment themes, so this Ontario–U.S. tariff dispute adds a trade-access dimension that could influence where new downstream processing or fabrication capacity is sited in North America.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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