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    Molybdenum’s sixth straight deficit and record prices: key signals for mine planners

    October 9, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Molybdenum’s sixth straight deficit and record prices: key signals for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Molybdenum is heading for a sixth straight annual deficit in 2027, with first-half 2026 demand up 8.5% to 358.2 million lb against supply of 335.6 million lb and prices already up 43% this year to about US$41.97/lb, BMO Capital Markets reports. A cumulative 108-million-lb shortfall since 2020, depleted inventories and constrained byproduct output from Chilean and Peruvian copper mines point to record prices and potential demand destruction in metallurgical and energy infrastructure uses. BMO flags Centerra Gold’s Thompson Creek–Langeloth platform and Freeport-McMoRan’s Climax and Henderson operations as key leveraged producers.

    Technical Brief

    • About 60% of global molybdenum output is copper byproduct, mainly from Chilean and Peruvian porphyry mines.
    • Global demand grew at 4.4% annually between 2020 and 2025, reaching 671 million lb. by 2025.
    • Cumulative supply shortfall to end‑2025 totals 108 million lb., roughly two months of global consumption.
    • Chilean molybdenum production peaked in 2017; South American supply has been broadly flat for about a decade.
    • Chinese primary mines face resource depletion plus tighter environmental and safety regulation, muting price‑driven supply response.
    • Zijin Mining’s Shapinggou primary molybdenum project is not expected to achieve full output before ~2029.
    • Myanmar’s incremental exports are largely low‑grade ore, not standard molybdenum concentrate, limiting effective supply relief.
    • Freeport‑McMoRan derives 7.3% of revenue from molybdenum, mainly via its Climax and Henderson Colorado operations.
    • Centerra Gold’s Thompson Creek mine and Langeloth plant form a vertically integrated North American molybdenum platform, with Thompson Creek targeting mid‑2027 restart.
    • More than 80% of molybdenum consumption is metallurgical (engineering and stainless steels, high‑temperature and corrosion‑resistant alloys).

    Our Take

    Freeport-McMoRan’s 7.3% revenue exposure to molybdenum means current prices can materially improve margins at assets like Grasberg, giving large copper producers more incentive to optimise moly circuits even if copper prices soften.

    The January 2026 incident at Centerra Gold’s Langeloth metallurgical facility, also tied to molybdenum, underlines that any processing disruptions in North America could tighten an already deficit market further, particularly for specialised metallurgical consumers that account for over 80% of demand.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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