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    Mining Forum: majors ‘waking up’ to discoveries – key signals for project teams

    October 23, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Mining Forum: majors ‘waking up’ to discoveries – key signals for project teams

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Commodity Discovery Fund founder Willem Middelkoop says major producers are “waking up” to early-stage discoveries as his Netherlands-based fund deploys about US$316 million across 40–50 exploration and near-production assets. He targets two points on the Lassonde Curve: the initial discovery phase, when step-out drilling can rapidly re-rate juniors, and the late construction phase, when markets start discounting future cash flow. Middelkoop expects structural supply shortages to bite around 2030, arguing that mining equities can drift for years between these windows even in a strong metals market.

    Technical Brief

    • Fund size is about US$316 million (€200 million), spread across 40–50 individual exploration and near-production positions.
    • Portfolio is deliberately diversified across “different metals”, not concentrated in a single commodity cycle.
    • Middelkoop reports majors are only now increasing exposure to early exploration, after years of underinvestment.
    • He describes a behavioural pattern where “even the lousy stocks will go up” late in rallies.
    • Profit-taking is executed soon after discovery-driven share price spikes, before value drifts in mid-curve years.
    • Capital is then rotated into projects where mine construction is nearly complete and commissioning risk is reducing.
    • Structural supply shortages are expected to start affecting the wider economy, not just metals markets, from around 2030.

    Our Take

    The Yukon Eagle gold mine sale for about $100 million fits with other pieces in our database, such as the 2026-07-17 Northern Miner M&A outlook, which flag that producers with thin pipelines are increasingly using acquisitions rather than greenfield builds to secure gold reserves before around 2030.

    Compared with the Incrementum gold fund interview from 2026-10-21, where almost 40% of the portfolio was reportedly held in cash, Commodity Discovery Fund’s deployment into roughly 40–50 discoveries suggests a more fully invested stance that could benefit disproportionately if majors keep paying up for assets like Eagle.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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