Geomechanics.io

  • Free Tools
Sign UpLog In

Geomechanics.io

Geomechanics, Streamlined.

© 2026 Geomechanics.io. All rights reserved.

Geomechanics.io

CMRR-ioGEODB-ioHYDROGEO-ioQCDB-ioFree Tools & CalculatorsBlogLatest Industry News

Industries

MiningConstructionTunnelling

Company

Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyLinkedIn
    AllGeotechnicalMiningInfrastructureMaterialsHazardsEnvironmentalSoftwarePolicy
    Projects

    Macquarie’s ‘oversupplied’ copper call: pricing and project signals for mine planners

    March 27, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Macquarie’s ‘oversupplied’ copper call: pricing and project signals for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Copper’s 16% price slide from January’s record, with May futures now around $12,000/t, is being called “overpriced, oversupplied and over the pond” by Macquarie, which cites more than 1 Mt of visible inventory growth since early 2025 and a 602,000 t market surplus last year. LME stocks are at six‑year highs, COMEX inventories are at record levels, and Macquarie estimates a further 480,000 t sitting off‑exchange in the US, drawn by CME‑LME arbitrage that previously pushed COMEX premiums above $2,000/t. The bank expects continued volatility driven mainly by investor positioning, Iran‑related geopolitics and uncertainty over a potential US Section 232 decision on copper imports by 30 June 2026, rather than by physical tightness.

    Technical Brief

    • Shanghai Futures Exchange base metals volumes in January jumped 80% versus December, indicating speculative inflows.
    • Aggregate copper open interest across NY, London and Shanghai rose by $9.5 billion in Dec–Jan, then fell $24.6 billion through Feb–Mar.
    • Macquarie’s 11-analyst commodities team (Geneva, Houston, London, Shanghai, Singapore) attributes the price spike mainly to investor flows.
    • COMEX copper premiums exceeded $2,000/t in Dec–Jan before compressing back towards historical levels.
    • Estimated 480,000 t of off‑exchange copper in the US is linked to CME–LME arbitrage positioning.
    • Excess metal concentration in the US is creating perceived tightness in other regions despite rising global stocks.
    • Chinese buyers have resumed spot purchasing as prices eased, with reported weekly inventory drawdowns domestically.
    • Outside China, spot physical premiums sit well below contract levels, signalling weak end‑use demand at current prices.

    Our Take

    Macquarie’s bearish stance on copper contrasts with its recent nickel outlook in March 2026, where it projected a shift from surplus to deficit, signalling that its base metals strategy is now highly differentiated by metal rather than uniformly bullish on ‘energy transition’ commodities.

    The earlier January 2026 coverage on potential US copper tariffs and critical minerals policy already framed copper as politically sensitive; Macquarie now calling the market oversupplied suggests policy risk may be a more important support for prices than underlying physical tightness in the near term.

    With copper and other base metals featuring in over 260 keyword-matched pieces in our database, this call from an 11-analyst Macquarie Strategy team is likely to be closely watched by project developers weighing whether to advance marginal copper assets versus pivoting to higher‑momentum critical minerals such as lithium, as seen at EnergyX’s Lonestar demonstration plant in Texas.

    Geotechnical Software for Modern Teams

    Centralise site data, logs, and lab results with GEODB-io, CMRR-io, and HYDROGEO-io.

    No credit card required.

    • Save and export unlimited calculations
    • Advanced data visualisation
    • Generate professional PDF reports
    • Cloud storage for all your projects

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

    Related Articles

    Mining
    about 5 hours ago

    Antofagasta PLC copper growth: autonomy at Centinela and lessons for mine planners

    Antofagasta PLC is tying copper growth to innovation, reporting in its FY2025 results that fleet autonomy has been deployed at the Centinela mine since 2021 and is now central to scaling operations. The company frames autonomy as a way to manage increasingly complex open-pit operations, with larger truck fleets and more intricate dispatch requirements driving demand for digital control. For mine planners and operations teams, this signals continued investment in autonomous haulage, data-driven fleet management and process optimisation across Antofagasta’s Chilean assets.

    Mining
    about 7 hours ago

    EACON autonomy on 120 BEV trucks at Zhundong mine: design notes for planners

    EACON’s ORCASTRA® autonomous haulage system has been deployed on 120 Tonly TLE138 battery-electric wide body trucks, each with a 90 t payload, at the Zhundong Open-Pit Coal Mine in northwest China, forming one of the largest single-site battery-electric haulage fleets globally. The fleet-scale autonomy on BEVs targets lower diesel-related ventilation demand and reduced haul unit operating costs on the mine’s large waste and coal benches. For mine planners and geotechnical teams, consistent autonomous haul patterns on wide body trucks will influence ramp geometry, dump stability, and traffic management design.

    Aeris–Constellation partnership post $14.5m copper exit: planning notes for engineers
    Mining
    about 17 hours ago

    Aeris–Constellation partnership post $14.5m copper exit: planning notes for engineers

    Aeris Resources has completed the $14.5 million divestment of its North Queensland copper assets, including the Jaguar and Mt Colin operations, to Dingo Minerals, freeing capital to focus on its Tritton and Cracow mines. The deal comprises cash, a deferred payment and a 1.25 per cent net smelter return royalty, giving Aeris ongoing exposure to future copper production without sustaining capital obligations. Aeris is now partnering with Constellation Mining Services to optimise underground development, drilling and mine planning across its remaining assets.

    Related Industries & Products

    Mining

    Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.

    CMRR-io

    Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.

    HYDROGEO-io

    Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.

    GEODB-io

    Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.