Geomechanics.io

  • Free Tools
Sign UpLog In

    Geomechanics.io

    Geomechanics, Streamlined.

    © 2026 Geomechanics.io. All rights reserved.

    Geomechanics.io

    CMRR-ioGEODB-ioHYDROGEO-ioQCDB-ioFree Tools & CalculatorsBlogLatest Industry News

    Industries

    MiningConstructionTunnelling

    Company

    Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyLinkedIn
    Projects

    Macquarie’s ‘oversupplied’ copper call: pricing and project signals for mine planners

    March 27, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Macquarie’s ‘oversupplied’ copper call: pricing and project signals for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Copper’s 16% price slide from January’s record, with May futures now around $12,000/t, is being called “overpriced, oversupplied and over the pond” by Macquarie, which cites more than 1 Mt of visible inventory growth since early 2025 and a 602,000 t market surplus last year. LME stocks are at six‑year highs, COMEX inventories are at record levels, and Macquarie estimates a further 480,000 t sitting off‑exchange in the US, drawn by CME‑LME arbitrage that previously pushed COMEX premiums above $2,000/t. The bank expects continued volatility driven mainly by investor positioning, Iran‑related geopolitics and uncertainty over a potential US Section 232 decision on copper imports by 30 June 2026, rather than by physical tightness.

    Technical Brief

    • Shanghai Futures Exchange base metals volumes in January jumped 80% versus December, indicating speculative inflows.
    • Aggregate copper open interest across NY, London and Shanghai rose by $9.5 billion in Dec–Jan, then fell $24.6 billion through Feb–Mar.
    • Macquarie’s 11-analyst commodities team (Geneva, Houston, London, Shanghai, Singapore) attributes the price spike mainly to investor flows.
    • COMEX copper premiums exceeded $2,000/t in Dec–Jan before compressing back towards historical levels.
    • Estimated 480,000 t of off‑exchange copper in the US is linked to CME–LME arbitrage positioning.
    • Excess metal concentration in the US is creating perceived tightness in other regions despite rising global stocks.
    • Chinese buyers have resumed spot purchasing as prices eased, with reported weekly inventory drawdowns domestically.
    • Outside China, spot physical premiums sit well below contract levels, signalling weak end‑use demand at current prices.

    Our Take

    Macquarie’s bearish stance on copper contrasts with its recent nickel outlook in March 2026, where it projected a shift from surplus to deficit, signalling that its base metals strategy is now highly differentiated by metal rather than uniformly bullish on ‘energy transition’ commodities.

    The earlier January 2026 coverage on potential US copper tariffs and critical minerals policy already framed copper as politically sensitive; Macquarie now calling the market oversupplied suggests policy risk may be a more important support for prices than underlying physical tightness in the near term.

    With copper and other base metals featuring in over 260 keyword-matched pieces in our database, this call from an 11-analyst Macquarie Strategy team is likely to be closely watched by project developers weighing whether to advance marginal copper assets versus pivoting to higher‑momentum critical minerals such as lithium, as seen at EnergyX’s Lonestar demonstration plant in Texas.

    Geotechnical Software for Modern Teams

    Centralise site data, logs, and lab results with GEODB-io, CMRR-io, and HYDROGEO-io.

    No credit card required.

    • Save and export unlimited calculations
    • Advanced data visualisation
    • Generate professional PDF reports
    • Cloud storage for all your projects

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

    Related Articles

    MAX Power Mining–Moose Jaw hydrogen MOU: subsurface and capex notes for engineers
    Mining
    2 days ago

    MAX Power Mining–Moose Jaw hydrogen MOU: subsurface and capex notes for engineers

    MAX Power Mining has signed an MOU with the City of Moose Jaw, Saskatchewan, to advance natural hydrogen commercialisation in the Regina–Moose Jaw Industrial Corridor, centred on the Lawson Natural Hydrogen system near Central Butte, about 80 km northwest of the city. Core desorption tests from nine samples in Cambrian Basal sands above the Basement Complex discovery returned helium values up to 8.7%, averaging 4.4%, indicating a potentially valuable hydrogen–helium system. The partners aim to leverage existing regional infrastructure and policy support to move the project towards commercial validation.

    Water shortages and mining projects: schedule and design takeaways for engineers
    Mining
    2 days ago

    Water shortages and mining projects: schedule and design takeaways for engineers

    Water scarcity and multi‑year permitting delays—often two to four years for discharge and dewatering approvals in the western US—are increasingly stalling otherwise bankable mines, with water risk now affecting project schedules, financing and national credit profiles. Consultants such as Woodard & Curran report that “credible water stories” are becoming as critical as ore grades, pushing operators towards closed‑loop recycling and non‑traditional sources. US firms Genesis Systems and Atoco are deploying atmospheric water generation units, including Genesis’ containerised WaterCube systems producing over 1,000 gallons per day off‑grid, now trialled at mine sites.

    Nouveau Monde’s Matawinie graphite mine: capex, schedule and offtake lens for engineers
    Mining
    2 days ago

    Nouveau Monde’s Matawinie graphite mine: capex, schedule and offtake lens for engineers

    Nouveau Monde Graphite has approved construction of the Matawinie open-pit mine in Saint-Michel-des-Saints, Quebec, designed to produce about 106,000 tonnes per year of graphite concentrate over more than 25 years and powered by the provincial hydroelectric grid. The company has secured roughly $644.5 million in equity and debt, with total capex for Matawinie and the Bécancour battery material plant now estimated at about $634 million after downsizing the plant from the 2025 feasibility study. A 30‑month build is planned to reach full production by end‑2028, with 75% of output under offtake, including a seven‑year, 30,000‑t/y fixed‑price contract with the Government of Canada.

    Related Industries & Products

    Mining

    Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.

    CMRR-io

    Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.

    HYDROGEO-io

    Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.

    GEODB-io

    Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.

    AllGeotechnicalInfrastructureHazardsEnvironmental