JPMorgan’s US copper output forecast: capex and project pipeline for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
US copper output could more than double as JPMorgan maps 1.3 million tonnes a year of potential new capacity, led by the Resolution Copper underground project in Arizona, a Rio Tinto–BHP JV slated to produce about 18 million tonnes over 40 years and ultimately supply up to 25% of US demand. The bank pegs US project capex at roughly US$28,000 per tonne of annual capacity, above the US$26,000 global average, with most new tonnage unlikely before 2030. Near-term growth hinges on Freeport-McMoRan’s 250,000 t/y brownfield expansions, faster permitting under FAST‑41, and parallel investment in smelting and refining to close a 1 million tonne primary copper deficit.
Technical Brief
- JPMorgan estimates US mined copper capacity could rise by 1.3 Mt/y, ranking third for global growth potential.
- US copper output has fallen to ~1 Mt/y, roughly half the level 30 years ago.
- National share of global copper production has dropped from ~50% in 1900 to under 5% today.
- Resolution Copper in Arizona contributes about half of JPMorgan’s identified 1.3 Mt/y potential capacity.
- Resolution remains pre‑2030, pending completion of permitting and technical studies for the deep underground development.
- US copper project capex is put at US$28,000 per tonne of annual capacity, versus US$26,000 globally.
- JPMorgan sees Freeport-McMoRan adding >250,000 t/y via brownfield expansions leveraging existing mine and plant infrastructure.
- FAST‑41 (2025) offers a federal route to compress mine permitting timelines for qualifying large projects.
- Additional upside is flagged from in‑situ leach technologies and restarts of idled US copper operations.
- A current ~1 Mt primary copper deficit and limited smelting/refining capacity make midstream investment critical alongside new mines.
Our Take
JPMorgan’s projection on US copper dovetails with its October 2026 move to set up a dedicated critical minerals investment lead under a $1.5‑trillion security and resiliency programme, signalling that large banks may increasingly underwrite upstream projects like Resolution Copper rather than just trading the metal.
The estimated 1‑million‑tonne US primary copper deficit implies that, even if Resolution Copper and other projects reach nameplate output after 2030, smelters and fabricators will likely still depend on imports, keeping logistics corridors such as Transnet‑linked export routes and Brazilian steel hubs like Divinópolis strategically relevant for US buyers.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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