IEA coal demand rise of 1.2% by 2026: pricing and supply notes for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Global coal demand is now forecast by the IEA to rise 1.2% in 2026 to 8.94 billion tonnes, reversing an expected decline as Strait of Hormuz disruptions drive LNG shortages and push thermal coal prices up to around $150/t. Increased coal-fired generation in Europe, Japan, South Korea, China and other gas-reliant markets with idle coal capacity, combined with an unusually strong El Niño cutting hydropower, is tightening supply. Global output will stay above 9 Bt but dip in 2026 after Chinese safety inspections, with a modest production rebound only expected in 2027.
Technical Brief
- LNG cargo restrictions through the Strait of Hormuz are the primary trigger shifting dispatch from gas to coal.
- Coal demand growth in 2026 is concentrated in gas-heavy systems with idle coal plant: Europe, Japan, South Korea and China.
- An unusually strong El Niño is expected to both increase cooling loads and depress hydropower output, stressing grids.
- IEA projects 2026 coal demand changes of +1% in China, +4.2% in India, +6% in South Korea.
- Japan and the United States are forecast to cut coal burn in 2026 by about 1% and 7% respectively.
- China’s coal production is forecast to fall in 2026 after safety inspections triggered by a major mine accident.
- Despite the production dip, global coal output is expected to remain above 9 Bt for a third consecutive year.
- Thermal coal spot prices reached around $150/t in H1 2026, supported by tighter supply–demand balance.
- IEA expects abundant inventories to cushion the 2026 production dip, with a slight output rebound pencilled in for 2027.
- Coal trade flows are becoming more sensitive to Middle East geopolitical risk, despite major producers lying outside the region.
Our Take
The IEA also features heavily in recent copper and critical-mineral coverage in our database, and its warning there about tightening copper supply contrasts with this coal demand uptick, signalling that decarbonisation metals and legacy fuels are likely to remain in simultaneous structural tightness through the 2026–2027 window.
With coal consumption projected around 8.9–9.0 Bt while BHP’s Escondida output is under pressure from grade decline in a separate July 2026 piece, power systems serving Chilean copper mines may face higher and more volatile input costs if LNG prices stay elevated and coal remains a marginal swing fuel in Asia.
The IEA’s earlier Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, which still shows a sizeable copper supply gap by 2035, implies that any sustained coal and LNG price spike driven by Strait of Hormuz risk could complicate the economics of new copper projects in countries like Chile and Ghana by raising energy and smelting costs just as more supply is needed.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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