ICSG copper surplus outlook to 2027: supply–demand signals for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Global refined copper surplus is projected to jump from 104,000 tonnes in 2026 to 368,000 tonnes in 2027 as smelter and refinery output, led by ramp-ups in Indonesia, India and the EU and stronger operating rates in Chile, outpaces demand. World mine production is expected to grow 1.3% this year and 3.1% in 2027, with recoveries at Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula and expansions at Oyu Tolgoi, Batu Hijau and Julong easing concentrate constraints. Refined usage is forecast to rise only 1.5% in 2026 and 2.5% in 2027, with China already accounting for 59% of global consumption.
Technical Brief
- Refined output growth is split between a 0.4% rise in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
- Ramp‑ups at Indonesian, Indian and EU smelters/refineries plus higher Chilean utilisation drive the 2027 rebound.
- Mine growth in 2026 is downgraded to 1.3% after cuts to Chile, China and Indonesia guidance.
- Specific mine contributors include Oyu Tolgoi, Batu Hijau, Malmyz, Julong, Svyatogor, Antamina and Cobre Panama stockpiles.
- Grasberg and Kamoa‑Kakula remain constrained after 2025 incidents, delaying full concentrate availability recovery.
- ICSG warns unreported Chinese inventories (state, producer, consumer, trader) can materially distort apparent demand calculations.
- Forecasts remain sensitive to geopolitical risk, particularly conflict in the Middle East affecting both mine output and end‑use.
Our Take
The strong forecast growth in secondary refined copper output from scrap by 2026 implies that smelters in China, the EU, Japan and North America may lean harder on scrap blending, which could erode premiums for some concentrate producers tied to assets such as Grasberg, Antamina and Kamoa-Kakula if mine supply grows as projected.
In our database, copper dominates the 289 keyword-matched pieces, and the inclusion of rare earths alongside copper cathode in this ICSG-focused item underlines that policymakers in regions like the EU and USA are increasingly treating copper in the same strategic bucket as critical minerals when planning long-term electrification and grid investments.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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