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    Gold, silver, miners surge as Treasury doubles buybacks: risk notes for mine planners

    August 20, 2026|

    Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

    Gold, silver, miners surge as Treasury doubles buybacks: risk notes for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Gold and silver prices spiked after the US Treasury said it would at least double liquidity-support buybacks of 10- to 30-year Treasuries from a tentative US$14 billion between 9 September and 4 November, driving spot gold to about US$4,484/oz and silver to roughly US$65.44/oz. The dollar index fell 0.78% as 10-year and 30-year yields dropped 1.27% and 1.84% respectively, cutting the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Gold equities leveraged the move, with the VanEck Gold Miners ETF up 8.8%, Agnico Eagle 8.85% and Barrick 7.66%.

    Technical Brief

    • Treasury plans to at least double liquidity-support buybacks for 10–30 year US Treasuries.
    • Tentative 9 Sept–4 Nov calendar had up to US$14 billion in long-end purchases scheduled.
    • Doubling implies at least an additional US$14 billion of long-dated bond buybacks over that window.
    • Trigger was mounting stress at the long end: recent 10-year auction cleared at highest yield since 2007.
    • The following 30-year auction priced at the steepest yield since 2001, signalling investor demand fatigue.
    • Treasury had just paid about US$85 billion in interest, the largest such payment in Bloomberg’s records.
    • Secretary Scott Bessent publicly targets a 10-year yield with a “3” handle, i.e. sub‑4% levels.
    • Brandywine’s Jack McIntyre compared the move to a mini “Operation Twist”, focused on lowering long-term borrowing costs.
    • Bloomberg’s Cameron Crise argued buybacks alone unlikely to reverse long-end selling without broader macro support.

    Our Take

    The sharp move in gold and silver linked to the US Department of Treasury’s buyback plan contrasts with Haywood Securities’ recent downgrade of its 2026 gold and silver forecasts, underscoring how macro policy shifts can temporarily overpower more cautious medium-term price expectations in our database.

    The inclusion of Ramaco Resources’ Brook mine and its gallium, germanium and rare earth elements alongside gold and silver in this piece aligns with other recent US critical-mineral items, indicating that market narratives are increasingly bundling traditional bullion exposure with strategic materials when interpreting Washington D.C.–driven policy moves.

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    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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