Gold price seen hitting $4,920/oz: supply, demand and project signals for miners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Gold prices are forecast by Metals Focus to average a record $4,920/oz in 2026, with total supply up 3.1% as mine production rises 2.4% to 3,907 tonnes and recycling grows 5.1%. Physical investment, which jumped 16% in 2025 and drove 803 tonnes of ETF inflows, is expected to overtake jewellery as the largest demand segment, while fabrication falls another 11% after a 19% drop to 1,646 tonnes last year. Central bank net purchases are seen staying high at 848 tonnes despite a 22% decline, reinforcing bullion’s role as a macro hedge.
Technical Brief
- Gold rallied 44% in 2025, its strongest annual performance since 1980, per Metals Focus.
- Mine output reached a record 3,817 tonnes in 2025, with further incremental growth forecast in 2026.
- Recycling supply is projected to rise despite “limited near‑market stocks” and investor reluctance to liquidate holdings.
- Physical bar and coin investment hit a 12‑year high in 2025, driven by tariff and US debt concerns.
- Exchange‑traded products saw 803 tonnes of inflows in 2025, the largest annual increase since 2020.
- Jewellery fabrication dropped 19% in 2025 to a five‑year low, as consumers shifted to lighter, lower‑carat pieces.
- Substitution towards platinum and gold‑plated products is reported where record bullion prices constrain traditional jewellery demand.
- Central bank net purchases fell 22% in 2025 to 848 tonnes but stayed well above pre‑2022 accumulation levels.
Our Take
Metals Focus also features in our recent coverage of Russia’s claim to 480–500 tonnes of 2025 gold output, so its bullish price view here is being formed against a backdrop of contested supply statistics between Russia, China and the World Gold Council.
The forecast 803 tonnes of gold ETP inflows and 848 tonnes of central bank buying in 2025 would, if realised, rival or exceed the annual mine output figures cited in the Russia–China production dispute piece, implying that investment and official-sector demand could absorb the equivalent of a major producer nation’s yearly supply.
Lynas Rare Earths’ presence in this outlook links precious metals sentiment with the critical minerals space, and in our database Lynas is simultaneously expanding rare earths offtake agreements and influence via the Minerals Council of Australia, suggesting its strategic positioning may benefit from any capital rotation into hard-asset and critical-mineral plays driven by a sustained gold bull market.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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