Copper price stalls near record: Chile storm-hit output and mine risks for planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper’s rally stalled just short of record levels as Comex December futures slipped 1.3% to $6.6020/lb and three-month LME prices retreated after coming within $2.50 of their all‑time high, even as LME inventories fell to 234,275 tonnes and Comex stocks swelled to about 688,000 tonnes. Chilean output dropped to 403,424 tonnes in July, its weakest July since 2011, after El Niño‑linked storms shut Antofagasta’s Los Pelambres and Lundin’s Caserones and forced 2026 guidance cuts at both operations. CRU now sees a previously forecast 639,000‑tonne 2026 surplus as effectively neutral, with continued US‑bound shipments and weather‑related Chilean disruptions risking a de facto deficit.
Technical Brief
- Chile’s July copper output fell 9.4% year-on-year and 9.8% month-on-month to 403,424 tonnes.
- Mining’s 9.3% contraction pulled Chile’s Imacec index down 1.5% year-on-year, versus 0.4% expected growth.
- The 1.7% month-on-month Imacec drop was the steepest since 2022, underscoring mining’s macro leverage.
- Comex inventories at ~688,000 tonnes are almost triple LME’s 234,275 tonnes, reshaping physical trade flows.
- US tariffs on refined copper imports rise to 15% in January 2027 and 30% in 2028, incentivising pre‑tariff stockpiling.
Our Take
In our recent copper coverage, Antofagasta’s weather‑related shutdown at Los Pelambres and Chile‑wide mine underperformance have been recurring themes, so the latest 9–10% July production drop in Chile reinforces a pattern of structural supply fragility rather than a one‑off storm impact.
The planned US duties of 15–30% on refined copper imports by 2027–2028, combined with CRU’s projected 2026 surplus, suggest a medium‑term pivot in value for producers like Freeport‑McMoRan and Southern Copper towards supplying semi‑finished or concentrate into North American smelters rather than shipping refined metal into the US.
Sibanye‑Stillwater’s US$340 million commitment to restart the Mt Lyell copper‑gold mine in Tasmania, with first ore only in 2029 and a 23‑year life, indicates that developers are banking on today’s elevated copper prices (up 44% year‑on‑year on Comex) persisting long enough to justify long‑dated, higher‑risk assets outside the core Latin American copper belt.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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