Copper price stalls below record: mine supply and SX‑EW signals for planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper is trading just below record levels, with Comex December at about $6.85/lb ($15,110/t) after hitting an all‑time high of $6.8730/lb, while LME three‑month briefly reached $14,779/t as exchange inventories shift sharply into US Comex warehouses, now holding 695,624 t versus roughly 300,000 t combined on LME and Shanghai. China’s August imports fell to 382,000 t, their weakest August in six years, while US refined imports hit a record 225,094 t in July amid uncertainty over proposed 15–30% tariffs from 2027. High prices are reviving SX‑EW capacity at Collahuasi (targeting 6,000 t cathode in 2027) and Mantoverde despite sulphuric acid rising from $155/t to $400/t, as global mine output heads for its first annual decline since 2017 after disruptions at Grasberg and Kamoa‑Kakula.
Technical Brief
- Comex copper inventories reached 695,624 t, more than double combined LME and Shanghai stocks.
- Shanghai exchange stocks dropped to 63,000 t, the lowest level since January 2024.
- LME copper inventories have fallen nearly 40% since late May, tightening deliverable supply outside the US.
- Total exchange copper stocks rose 33% in 2026 to 993,276 t, but with a strong US skew.
- Comex holdings increased 53% in 2026 while Shanghai’s declined 57%, inverting the traditional regional balance.
- World mine output fell 1.1% in H1 2026, driven by a 2.6% drop in concentrate production.
- Indonesian concentrate output declined 32% with Grasberg constrained, while DRC concentrate fell 34% after seismic damage at Kamoa-Kakula.
- Chilean mine production dropped 6.6% in H1 2026 and August copper export value slid to $4.62 billion.
- SX-EW cathode output still grew 4.3% in H1 2026, partially offsetting concentrate shortfalls.
- Analysts now see 2026 mine supply flat to slightly lower, implying structural tightness until at least 2030 given long permitting lead times.
Our Take
Anglo American and Glencore’s exposure to Collahuasi in Chile, highlighted in our recent coverage of the proposed Anglo–Teck merger, becomes more strategically important when Chile accounts for a quarter of world copper mining but only a small share of smelting, tightening the link between Andean mine disruptions and global refined supply.
The 4.3% rise in SX-EW cathode output versus falling concentrate production suggests heap leach and oxide projects such as Marimaca Copper’s oxide development in northern Chile may see relatively smoother ramp-up pathways and financing interest than new sulphide concentrators in the near term.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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