Copper price sets fresh record: supply, tariffs and project risks for mine planners
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper for September delivery on Comex hit a record $6.7270/lb (about $14,830/t), trading at a near 4% premium of roughly $550/t over LME three‑month prices as US tariff threats pull metal into American warehouses and drain availability elsewhere. Comex inventories have climbed for 46 consecutive days to a record 675,185 t, with 65,400 t recently earmarked to leave LME sheds, overturning CRU’s forecast 639,000 t 2026 global surplus into a de facto balanced or deficit market. Southern Copper’s market value has surged to about $183 billion, overtaking Rio Tinto’s sub‑$180 billion despite Rio’s far larger revenues, while Zijin warns flooding at Kamoa‑Kakula could cut its attributable mined copper by up to 57,000 t this year.
Technical Brief
- LME three-month copper traded up to $14,343/t, within 1.3% of January’s all‑time peak.
- Stocks on warrant in LME warehouses jumped 74.5% in a week on returning metal.
- LME cash–three‑month backwardation shrank to $248/t from a $434/t five‑year high.
- US refined copper imports reached 885,000 t in H1, tracking towards 1.64 Mt for 2025.
- Proposed US tariffs target refined copper at 15% from 2027, rising to 30% from 2028.
- CRU’s 2026 surplus forecast of 639,000 t is now viewed as effectively balanced at best.
- Southern Copper plans to exceed 1 Mt/y mined copper by 2029, supported by $4.3 bn Q2 sales.
- Flooding at Zijin’s Kamoa‑Kakula mine may remove up to 57,000 t from its 2026 attributable output.
Our Take
The prospective US Export-Import Bank financing for the Santa Cruz copper project in Arizona sits alongside other state-backed copper deals in our database, such as South Korea’s Eximbank–Glencore offtake-linked loan, signalling that government credit is increasingly being tied directly to securing refined copper supply rather than just mine build-out risk.
With copper now one of the most frequently tagged commodities in our 1301 Mining stories, the sharp re-rating of pure-play names like Southern Copper and Zijin Mining (also highlighted in our ‘World’s 50 most valuable miners’ coverage) suggests equity markets are assigning a premium to scale copper producers relative to diversified majors such as Rio Tinto and BHP at similar market capitalisations.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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