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Copper price rally resumes: project pipeline and capex signals for mine planners

December 11, 2025|

Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

Copper price rally resumes: project pipeline and capex signals for mine planners

First reported on MINING.com

30 Second Briefing

Copper prices rebounded to $11,556.50/t on the LME, close to this week’s record $11,771/t, as RBC Capital Markets warned that mine disruptions and weak project pipelines mean higher prices are needed to unlock new supply. Analysts link the tight outlook to AI-driven data centre build-out, EV expansion and expectations of a US copper tariff, all adding to structural demand. The move follows a brief 1.3% pullback after Chinese data showed producer prices falling for a 38th consecutive month ahead of a key US rate decision.

Technical Brief

  • Three-month LME copper futures settled at $11,556.50/t on Wednesday, gaining 0.6% intraday.
  • Earlier in the week, LME copper set a record intraday price of $11,771/t.
  • RBC Capital Markets explicitly links required new-mine investment to a “period of higher prices”.
  • Chinese producer prices have now fallen for 38 consecutive months, signalling persistent downstream margin pressure.
  • RBC’s note emphasises the combined demand pull from AI data centres, EVs and renewable infrastructure.

Our Take

The renewed copper rally flagged by RBC Capital Markets aligns with the recent LME record high covered in our database, suggesting that price volatility is now being driven as much by policy and stockpiling signals from the United States and China as by mine-level disruptions.

With China logging 38 consecutive months of producer price declines, any sustained copper strength will likely squeeze margins for Chinese fabricators, which in turn could accelerate efforts to secure cheaper concentrate or long-term offtake from non-Chinese projects in our Mining coverage.

US-focused policy support for copper and other critical minerals in the “One Big Beautiful Bill” article in our database means that a structurally tighter copper market over the next year could quickly translate into more aggressive permitting and funding pushes for American copper projects.

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Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

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