Copper price nears record as Shanghai, London stocks drain: supply risks for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper futures on Comex climbed 1.1% to $6.8370/lb (about $15,070/t), within 1% of their record settlement, as SHFE warehouse stocks fell 70% since June to 43,900 t and cash copper on the LME flipped into a $62/t backwardation, signalling acute near-term tightness. Cancelled LME warrants have risen to 122,150 t, leaving only 133,725 t available, while Comex now holds 696,204 t, about 69% of exchange-monitored copper, with New Orleans storage near full and another 100,000 t inbound. Supply risks remain elevated, with Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula disruptions removing roughly 600,000 t from 2026 mine output and Sprott warning global production could contract for the first time since 2017.
Technical Brief
- December Comex copper hit an intraday high of $6.8710/lb before easing slightly.
- LME three‑month copper traded at $14,766/t, keeping New York’s premium above $300/t.
- Shanghai’s most‑traded copper contract reached 111,320 yuan/t (about $16,616/t), tracking Western price strength.
- Yangshan import premium for delivered copper closed last week at its highest level in nearly four years.
- Chinese buyers accelerated restocking ahead of market closures from 25–27 September and 1–7 October.
- Cash‑to‑three‑month LME spread moved from an $86/t discount a week ago to a $62/t premium.
- Freeport‑McMoRan’s Grasberg and Ivanhoe’s Kamoa‑Kakula issues have already removed 600,000 t from expected 2026 mine supply.
- First Quantum’s share price jump followed a UK patent grant for its trolley‑assist haulage system, signalling traction for diesel‑displacement technologies.
Our Take
Our recent 18 September copper supply piece flagged a 1.1% year‑on‑year drop in mined output and specific losses at Grasberg and Kamoa‑Kakula, which helps explain why today’s near‑record Comex levels are being driven more by structural mine underperformance than by short‑term speculative flows.
With Comex now holding about 69% of all exchange‑monitored copper and New York prices running a roughly $300/t premium over the LME, physical traders and smelters tied to London or Shanghai benchmarks face growing basis risk when hedging Latin American and African production from assets like Escondida and Kamoa‑Kakula.
Across our copper coverage since mid‑August, repeated references to collapsing treatment charges and shrinking cathode inventories suggest integrated players such as Freeport‑McMoRan, BHP and Antofagasta are better positioned than toll smelters to capture margin in a market where refined units, not ore, are the immediate bottleneck.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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