Geomechanics.io

  • Free Tools
Sign UpLog In
Built byBoxcut Studio

Geomechanics.io

Geomechanics, Streamlined.

© 2026 Geomechanics.io. All rights reserved.

Geomechanics.io

CMRR-ioGEODB-ioHYDROGEO-ioQCDB-ioFree Tools & CalculatorsBlogLatest Industry News

Industries

MiningConstructionTunnelling

Company

Terms of UsePrivacy PolicyLinkedIn
    Projects

    Copper price forecasts lifted for 2026: market balance lens for mine planners

    October 15, 2026|

    Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

    Copper price forecasts lifted for 2026: market balance lens for mine planners

    First reported on MINING.com

    30 Second Briefing

    Copper’s 2026 rally, with Comex trading near $6.67/lb (~$14,700/t) and LME cash hitting records above $14,800/t as visible stocks outside the US fall 168,000 t, has split forecasters on whether the roughly 1.5–2 Mt of US inventory is true surplus or strategic stockpile. Macquarie projects a 223,000 t surplus this year and >700,000 t annual surpluses from 2027, warning that a negative Section 232 tariff decision could trigger a CME price “collapse” and push surplus US metal into LME warehouses. BMO instead lifts its long-term real price to $16,000/t, arguing the US hoard offsets a 1.6 Mt Chinese reserve drawdown and that any scrap export ban removing ~600,000 t/y of contained copper would tighten fundamentals further.

    Technical Brief

    • Macquarie applies a 531,000 t disruption allowance yet still derives a 223,000 t 2026 surplus.
    • Its mine supply growth assumptions are 4.9% in 2027 and 4.3% in 2028, driven by specific ramp‑ups.
    • Collahuasi, Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, Centinela, Tia Maria and Cobre Panama (full from mid‑2027) underpin that supply.
    • Macquarie’s long‑term incentive price is lifted to $10,500/t in 2025 dollars, cycle low $12,000/t.
    • BMO raises its long‑term real price 47% to $16,000/t, implying ~$18,000/t nominal by 2030.
    • BMO estimates the US copper hoard near 2 Mt, roughly one year of US consumption.
    • BMI cuts 2026 mine supply growth from 2.4% to 1.1%, with Chilean output down 4% year‑on‑year.
    • BMI’s balance shifts to a widening deficit from 2027, reaching 1.7 Mt by 2035 on 3–4% demand growth.
    • International Copper Study Group pegs a 104,000 t surplus in 2026 and 368,000 t in 2027.

    Our Take

    In our database, copper is one of the most frequently covered commodities within the 1265 Mining stories, and the raised long-term price forecasts here will likely sharpen board-level competition for Tier-1 assets such as Escondida, El Teniente and Kamoa-Kakula as operators reassess hurdle prices for expansions.

    Geotechnical Software for Modern Teams

    Centralise site data, logs, and lab results with GEODB-io, CMRR-io, and HYDROGEO-io.

    No credit card required.

    • Save and export unlimited calculations
    • Advanced data visualisation
    • Generate professional PDF reports
    • Cloud storage for all your projects

    Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.

    Related Articles

    Expander pivot pins: reducing long-term maintenance costs for mine fleets
    Mining
    about 3 hours ago

    Expander pivot pins: reducing long-term maintenance costs for mine fleets

    Hidden costs from traditional pivot pin maintenance on haul trucks, forestry harvesters and excavators are driving interest in Expander System’s oversized pivot pins with tapered sleeves, according to Nord-Lock Group head of sales Robin Persson. The retrofit design allows installation in worn pivot eyes without line boring or welding, using conical sleeves to create full-surface contact and reduce clearance growth. For mine maintenance teams, this can cut repeated pin replacement shutdowns and lower life-cycle costs on high-load joints such as dump body hinges, loader booms and articulation points.

    Canadian Chrome Company First Nations committee: M&A risk notes for project teams
    Mining
    about 3 hours ago

    Canadian Chrome Company First Nations committee: M&A risk notes for project teams

    Canadian Chrome Company has formed a three-person First Nations steering committee, including former Attawapiskat Chief Theresa Okimaw-Hall and former Marten Falls Chief Lawrence Baxter, to advise on its Ring of Fire chromite, nickel, copper and platinum assets in Ontario’s James Bay Lowlands. The committee will provide Indigenous perspectives to prospective buyers or partners ahead of any sale or merger involving CCC’s 90% interest in the Koper Lake project and 30% in the Big Daddy project. Both projects remain at pre‑PFS stage, with no new economic analysis disclosed.

    Boron One Serbia PEA update: economics and design notes for mine planners
    Mining
    about 3 hours ago

    Boron One Serbia PEA update: economics and design notes for mine planners

    Boron One’s updated PEA for the Piskanja underground boron project in southern Serbia lifts the after-tax IRR to 89% and NPV (10% discount) to US$558.8 million, with unchanged initial capex of US$79.9 million and a sub‑one‑year payback, but shortens mine life to 13 years and trims average annual EBITDA to US$87.7 million. The plan now targets average yearly output of 157,600 tonnes of colemanite, 83,800 tonnes of ulexite and 25,000 tonnes of boric acid, at all‑in sustaining costs of US$231.44 per tonne. The revised study incorporates new geotechnical testing, a 3D resource model by borate type and a binding offtake for at least 25,000 tonnes of boron products per year, subject to permitting and plant qualification.

    Related Industries & Products

    Mining

    Geotechnical software solutions for mining operations including CMRR analysis, hydrogeological testing, and data management.

    CMRR-io

    Streamline coal mine roof stability assessments with our cloud-based CMRR software featuring automated calculations, multi-scenario analysis, and collaborative workflows.

    HYDROGEO-io

    Comprehensive hydrogeological testing platform for managing, analysing, and reporting on packer tests, lugeon values, and hydraulic conductivity assessments.

    GEODB-io

    Centralised geotechnical data management solution for storing, accessing, and analysing all your site investigation and material testing data.

    AllGeotechnicalInfrastructureHazardsEnvironmental