Copper price forecasts lifted for 2026: market balance lens for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Copper’s 2026 rally, with Comex trading near $6.67/lb (~$14,700/t) and LME cash hitting records above $14,800/t as visible stocks outside the US fall 168,000 t, has split forecasters on whether the roughly 1.5–2 Mt of US inventory is true surplus or strategic stockpile. Macquarie projects a 223,000 t surplus this year and >700,000 t annual surpluses from 2027, warning that a negative Section 232 tariff decision could trigger a CME price “collapse” and push surplus US metal into LME warehouses. BMO instead lifts its long-term real price to $16,000/t, arguing the US hoard offsets a 1.6 Mt Chinese reserve drawdown and that any scrap export ban removing ~600,000 t/y of contained copper would tighten fundamentals further.
Technical Brief
- Macquarie applies a 531,000 t disruption allowance yet still derives a 223,000 t 2026 surplus.
- Its mine supply growth assumptions are 4.9% in 2027 and 4.3% in 2028, driven by specific ramp‑ups.
- Collahuasi, Grasberg, Kamoa-Kakula, Centinela, Tia Maria and Cobre Panama (full from mid‑2027) underpin that supply.
- Macquarie’s long‑term incentive price is lifted to $10,500/t in 2025 dollars, cycle low $12,000/t.
- BMO raises its long‑term real price 47% to $16,000/t, implying ~$18,000/t nominal by 2030.
- BMO estimates the US copper hoard near 2 Mt, roughly one year of US consumption.
- BMI cuts 2026 mine supply growth from 2.4% to 1.1%, with Chilean output down 4% year‑on‑year.
- BMI’s balance shifts to a widening deficit from 2027, reaching 1.7 Mt by 2035 on 3–4% demand growth.
- International Copper Study Group pegs a 104,000 t surplus in 2026 and 368,000 t in 2027.
Our Take
In our database, copper is one of the most frequently covered commodities within the 1265 Mining stories, and the raised long-term price forecasts here will likely sharpen board-level competition for Tier-1 assets such as Escondida, El Teniente and Kamoa-Kakula as operators reassess hurdle prices for expansions.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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