Copper mine supply risks first decline since 2017: planning notes for engineers
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Global mined copper output is on track for its first annual decline since 2017, with a 1.1% year-on-year drop in H1 2026 and about 600,000 tonnes of expected 2026 production lost from Grasberg and Kamoa-Kakula, equal to roughly 2.5% of global mine supply, Sprott reports. Chilean production, 23% of world mine output, fell 6.6% in H1 and 9.4% in July, with Cochilco now forecasting 5.27 Mt for 2026 and BHP’s Escondida guiding down to 1.0–1.1 Mt in FY 2027 despite record throughput. While refined copper still shows a modest surplus, US cathode imports hit a record 223,000 tonnes in July and COMEX inventories jumped 712% since February 2025 on tariff uncertainty, tightening freely available metal outside the US and boosting miners’ margins via lower treatment and refining charges.
Technical Brief
- Copper projects average 17.5 years from discovery to first production, limiting short‑term supply response.
- Disruptions at Grasberg (Freeport-McMoRan) and Kamoa-Kakula (Ivanhoe Mines) underpin the 600,000‑tonne 2026 loss.
- Codelco’s El Teniente Andes Norte development may be suspended up to two years after a fatal accident.
- Antofagasta and Lundin Mining together removed 35,000–55,000 tonnes from 2026 guidance, partly due to Chilean winter storms.
- At Escondida, record mining and concentrator throughput in FY 2026 still cannot offset declining copper feed grades.
- Between 2000 and 2025, copper prices rose ~7× while Chilean mine output increased only 15%, evidencing grade/geology constraints.
- U.S. cathode imports in July (223,000 tonnes) were roughly 3–6× typical pre‑2024 July volumes.
- Anticipation of a possible 50% U.S. refined copper tariff previously drove COMEX prices to >30% over LME.
- U.S. Commerce Department has proposed refined copper duties of 15% from 2027 and 30% from 2028, pending presidential approval.
Our Take
The projected 1.1% fall in global mine output alongside a 2.4% rise in refined copper production implies smelters are leaning harder on existing concentrate pipelines and secondary feed, which could tighten treatment charges and raise supply risk if large mines like Escondida or Grasberg underperform.
With Chile still accounting for 23% of world mine production but showing mid‑single to high‑single digit output declines, operators in other copper regions such as the DRC’s Kamoa-Kakula complex and U.S.-linked assets covered in our recent Freeport-McMoRan pieces are positioned to gain pricing and negotiating leverage in offtake and JV discussions.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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