China’s grip on lithium to hit 39% by 2030: supply risks mapped for mine planners
Reviewed by Tom Sullivan

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
China is projected by Wood Mackenzie to control 39% of global lithium production by 2030 as Chinese capital backs projects such as Huayou Cobalt’s proposed acquisition of Atlantic Lithium and Hainan Mining’s investment in Kodal Minerals’ Bougouni project in Mali. Australia’s share of extraction is forecast to fall from 43% in 2020 to 25% by 2030 while Africa rises to about 13%, with most new African capacity financed from China. Europe is strengthening downstream control via refining and battery plants, including Vulcan Energy in Germany and Sibanye-Stillwater’s Keliber project in Finland, even as North American projects lag.
Technical Brief
- Wood Mackenzie’s Lens Metals & Mining platform tracks ownership versus production, evidencing the emerging divergence quantitatively.
- Wood Mackenzie notes “few exceptions” to Chinese financing dominance across Africa’s pipeline of new lithium projects.
- South America’s lithium share is projected to dip below 25% by 2030 despite ongoing project investment.
- Europe’s strengthened position comes mainly from refining, battery manufacturing and recycling rather than direct mine ownership.
- North American lithium projects are experiencing schedule slippage and cost pressures, slowing ramp‑up and weakening regional supply share.
Our Take
Wood Mackenzie’s separate long‑range outlook for lithium demand to 2050 already flags structural deficits from as early as 2028, so a 39% Chinese production grip by 2030 would give Chinese operators disproportionate pricing and offtake leverage just as the market tightens.
Recent coverage of Trafigura’s 10‑year offtake from the US Smackover Lithium brine project suggests North American and European buyers are already trying to ring‑fence non‑Chinese supply, which becomes more strategically important if South America’s share slips below 25% and Chinese control rises toward WoodMac’s 39% projection.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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