BMO on Canada’s C$120bn mining pipeline: capex and project signals for engineers
Reviewed by Joe Ashwell

First reported on MINING.com
30 Second Briefing
Canada is positioning for a larger share of global mining capital as BMO Global Metals & Mining flags C$120 billion in planned project spending in Natural Resources Canada’s 10‑year Major Projects Inventory and forecasts more than 11% annual growth in development capex over the next two years. BMO urges investors to shift from purely upstream projects towards domestic copper smelting and refining, battery precursor materials, rare earth separation and by‑product capture to build end‑to‑end supply chains. The bank also points to separating mine and infrastructure financing, tapping under‑allocated Canadian pension assets (C$4.5 trillion), and targeting new districts from BC to Ontario’s Ring of Fire and Nunavut.
Technical Brief
- Natural Resources Canada’s 10‑year Major Projects Inventory now totals C$120B, up C$50B from 2018.
- Previous cycle peak investment reached ~C$220B (real 2026 dollars), underscoring current headroom for new projects.
- BMO-covered miners are projected to spend C$350B on opex, sustaining capex and growth in Canada over five years.
- Saskatchewan remains the world’s top potash investment destination, anchoring Canada’s leading potash production base.
- Canada currently ranks second globally in uranium production and fourth in both gold output and aluminium refining.
- New district development is flagged from British Columbia through Ontario’s Ring of Fire to Nunavut for gold, nickel, lithium.
- Canadian pension funds manage C$4.5T in assets, identified as under‑allocated to domestic mining and infrastructure.
- Separating mine and infrastructure financing is proposed to attract specialist infrastructure funds and lower project capital costs.
Our Take
The C$350 billion five‑year spend in Canada for copper, nickel, lithium and other critical minerals sits against a backdrop of US federal critical‑minerals support totalling about US$18.6 billion across 60 financings, suggesting cross‑border policy tailwinds for projects that can qualify on both sides of the border.
Natural Resources Canada’s C$120 billion major‑projects pipeline to 2025, combined with Canada’s status as the top potash and second‑largest uranium producer, positions Saskatchewan assets in particular to benefit from the fertiliser and nuclear themes that recur across our 1276 Mining stories.
Prepared by collating external sources, AI-assisted tools, and Geomechanics.io’s proprietary mining database, then reviewed for technical accuracy & edited by our geotechnical team.
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